For U.S. Hispanic readers following relatives and communities in Mexico, Hurricane Simon’s timing remains uncertain. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecasts a close approach to west-central Mexico this afternoon and tonight, Sunday, October 11. However, its latest consulted advisory does not confirm an exact landfall time or a specific coastal crossing point. Simon is moving parallel to the coastline as a dangerous Category 4 hurricane, with sustained winds of 140 mph. The key distinction is uncertainty: a close coastal approach is forecast, but a confirmed landfall is not.
At noon CST, the hurricane’s center was approximately 85 miles west-northwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. It was also about 65 miles south-southeast of Cabo Corrientes, moving north-northwest at 7 mph. A hurricane warning covers Punta San Telmo to El Roblito, including a separate warning for Las Islas Marías. For families monitoring from the United States, these locations identify the coastal areas under the official warning. The warning area should not be interpreted as a prediction that Simon will make landfall at every location within it.
Simon’s hazards extend beyond the question of whether its eye crosses the Mexican coastline. The NHC forecasts dangerous storm surge and large, destructive waves near where the center approaches land. Additional rainfall of 8 to 16 inches is expected across parts of southwestern Mexico through Monday. Isolated storm totals could reach 30 inches in portions of Michoacán, Colima and Jalisco. These rains could produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, particularly in steep terrain.
The projected landfall time refers to when the storm’s center crosses the coast, not when all its effects begin. Strong winds, heavy rain and storm surge can affect some communities beforehand. Residents should follow official alerts and local emergency instructions rather than relying solely on the estimated time windows.
Current forecast projections place Hurricane Simon near the west-central coast of Mexico, moving offshore between the areas of Manzanillo and Cabo Corrientes. Rather than identifying a specific landfall location, forecast guidance indicates the system is expected to track very close to the coastline, keeping portions of the Pacific coast under close observation.
At this stage, meteorologists have not confirmed a definitive landfall point. The latest advisory suggests the hurricane’s center could remain offshore while passing near coastal communities, meaning impacts such as heavy rainfall, dangerous surf, strong winds and coastal flooding could extend across a broad stretch of western Mexico even without a direct strike.
Because the forecast track remains close to the coast, areas along the west-central Mexican Pacific shoreline, including regions near Colima and Jalisco, should continue monitoring official updates. Small shifts in the storm’s path could still influence whether the center remains offshore or moves inland, making the exact landfall scenario uncertain until further advisories are issued.
The National Hurricane Center’s Advisory No. 17A, issued at 12 p.m. Central Daylight Time on Sunday, October 11, reported the following conditions:
| Official Detail | Reported Information |
|---|---|
| Classification | Category 4 hurricane |
| Location | About 85 miles (140 km) to the west-northwest of Manzanillo, Mexico / About 65 miles (100 km) to the south-southeast of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico |
| Maximum sustained winds | 140 mph (220 km/h) |
| Movement | North-northwest or 345 degrees at 7 mph (11 km/h) |
| Minimum central pressure | 940 millibars (27.76 inches) |
| Forecast landfall | Punta San Telmo to El Roblito & Las Islas Marias, Sunday evening |
The NHC warned that conditions were deteriorating in areas under hurricane and storm surge warnings. Tropical-storm conditions were beginning to spread onshore, while hurricane conditions were expected later Sunday evening in affected locations.
These figures correspond to the advisory cited and should be updated if the NHC issues a newer bulletin before publication.
Hurricane Simon remains an extremely powerful tropical cyclone, currently classified as a Category 4 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 140 mph (220 km/h). At this strength, the system is capable of producing destructive winds, dangerous storm surge and intense rainfall across areas affected by its circulation. Its current intensity places it among the strongest hurricanes in the eastern Pacific basin this season.
Forecasters expect Simon to remain a major hurricane as it moves near the west-central coast of Mexico, although some gradual weakening is possible in the coming hours. Even with a slight reduction in wind speeds, the cyclone is forecast to retain significant strength capable of generating hazardous conditions along portions of the coastline, particularly in communities exposed to its core and outer rainbands.
At this time, meteorologists have not identified a confirmed landfall location, making it difficult to determine the exact category the storm could have if it reaches the coast. A more pronounced weakening trend could occur if Simon’s center moves inland or interacts with the mountainous terrain of western Mexico, which often disrupts a hurricane’s structure and reduces its intensity relatively quickly.
Regardless of whether the center remains offshore or crosses the coastline, Simon is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during its closest approach. As a result, coastal areas could still experience impacts typically associated with a major hurricane, including strong winds, heavy rainfall, rough surf and potentially dangerous coastal flooding.
Forecasters are warning that Hurricane Simon could generate a dangerous storm surge along parts of Mexico’s west-central Pacific coast as the powerful hurricane moves close to land. The greatest risk is expected near and east of the area where the center of the storm makes its closest approach to the coastline. Even if the hurricane remains offshore, coastal communities could still face significant impacts from elevated water levels and rough marine conditions.
The National Hurricane Center indicates that the storm surge will likely be accompanied by large and destructive waves, creating hazardous conditions along beaches, ports and low-lying coastal areas. These impacts can extend well away from the exact location of the hurricane’s center, increasing the threat of coastal flooding, dangerous surf and erosion across exposed sections of the shoreline.
At this time, official forecasts have not provided a specific storm-surge height estimate, and no separate storm-surge warning zone has been identified in the latest advisory. However, hurricane warnings remain in effect for portions of Mexico’s Pacific coast, including the area from Punta San Telmo to El Roblito, as well as Las Islas Marías. Residents in these regions are being closely monitored as Simon continues its track near the coast and authorities assess the potential extent of coastal impacts.
The exact landfall scenario for Hurricane Simon remains uncertain, as the latest forecast track keeps the hurricane moving very close to Mexico’s west-central Pacific coastline through Monday. Forecasters continue to monitor whether the center stays offshore or eventually crosses inland, a distinction that could significantly influence how quickly the storm weakens and where the most severe impacts occur. Until a definitive landfall point is confirmed, coastal communities remain under close observation as Simon tracks near the region.
If Simon’s core moves inland, interaction with land and the rugged mountainous terrain of western Mexico would likely lead to a faster loss of strength. Tropical cyclones typically weaken once they are cut off from the warm ocean waters that fuel their circulation, and higher elevations can further disrupt the storm’s structure. Even so, a weakening trend would not necessarily mean an immediate end to dangerous weather conditions across affected areas.
The primary threats are expected to persist well beyond the hurricane’s closest approach. Forecasters continue to warn of torrential rainfall, flash flooding, mudslides and dangerous coastal surf, especially in mountainous and flood-prone regions. These hazards often continue after a hurricane begins to weaken and can sometimes cause impacts far from the storm’s center. As a result, residents along Mexico’s Pacific coast may continue to experience hazardous conditions even after Simon starts losing intensity.
For emergency managers and local authorities, the focus after landfall will shift from wind impacts to rainfall-related dangers and coastal recovery efforts. Historically, flooding and landslides rank among the most significant threats associated with hurricanes affecting western Mexico, particularly when slow-moving systems interact with steep terrain. That makes post-landfall monitoring just as important as tracking the hurricane before it reaches the coast.
The consulted 12:00 p.m. CST advisory does not report a confirmed landfall. It places the center offshore and moving parallel to the coastline.
No. The NHC provides an afternoon-and-night coastal approach window, not an exact landfall hour that can be converted into Eastern, Central or Pacific time.
The advisory identifies portions of Michoacán, Colima and Jalisco as areas where isolated storm rainfall totals could reach 30 inches through Monday.
No. The consulted NHC updates place Simon near Mexico’s Pacific coast and post-tropical Isaias inland over the United States.
Contenido GEC