Florida voters head to the polls on Tuesday, November 3, for the 2026 midterm elections, with two major statewide contests drawing national attention: a special election for the U.S. Senate and the race for governor. Republican Ashley Moody is seeking to retain her Senate seat against Democrat Angie Nixon, while Republican Byron Donalds faces Democrat David Jolly in the gubernatorial contest. Final polls show Republicans leading in both races, although the margins differ among surveys and polling averages.
The results will help determine Florida’s political direction and could influence the balance of power in Washington. The Senate special election is particularly significant because control of the chamber is being contested nationally, while the governor’s race will decide who leads the country’s third-most-populous state.
Who is leading in the Florida midterm elections 2026?
Republican candidates hold advantages in the two main statewide contests, according to polling averages published before Election Day. However, the size of those leads varies depending on the pollster and the methodology used.
In the U.S. Senate special election, Power & Politics’ November 3 average placed Ashley Moody at 49%, compared with 43.8% for Angie Nixon, a difference of 5.2 percentage points. A separate survey from RedBox Research, conducted October 30–31 among 2,898 likely voters, showed a narrower contest: Moody received 47% and Nixon 45%. The poll had a margin of error of 2.1 percentage points for each candidate’s share.
The governor’s race also showed a Republican advantage. Power & Politics’ November 3 average placed Byron Donalds at 48.5% and David Jolly at 45.2%, a 3.3-point difference. The Hill and Decision Desk HQ’s November 3 estimate showed Donalds at 47.7% and Jolly at 44%.
These figures represent pre-election polling measurements, not official vote totals. The final results will depend on ballots counted and reported by Florida election authorities.
Florida Midterm Election Results 2026: Senate and Governor Candidates
Florida has two major statewide contests on the November 3 ballot: a special election for the U.S. Senate and the general election for governor. The following table identifies the principal candidates, their political affiliations and the status of the vote count.
| U.S. Senate | Ashley Moody | Republican (R) | Pending |
| U.S. Senate | Angie Nixon | Democratic (D) | Pending |
| U.S. Senate | Neil Gillespie | No Party Affiliation (NPA) | Pending |
| Governor | Byron Donalds | Republican (R) | Pending |
| Governor | David Jolly | Democratic (D) | Pending |
| Governor | Scott Jewett | Libertarian (L) | Pending |
| Governor | Dean Ocean Abrams | No Party Affiliation (NPA) | Pending |
| Governor | Charles Burkett | No Party Affiliation (NPA) | Pending |
| Governor | Jeffrey Peter Datto | No Party Affiliation (NPA) | Pending |
| Governor | Moliere Moe Dimanche | No Party Affiliation (NPA) | Pending |
| Governor | Frank J. Russo | No Party Affiliation (NPA) | Pending |
Who is leading in the Florida Senate race?
Republican Ashley Moody enters the special Senate election with an advantage over Democrat Angie Nixon in the latest available polling averages. Moody was appointed to the U.S. Senate in January 2025 after Marco Rubio left the chamber to become U.S. secretary of state. She is now seeking election to retain the seat, while Nixon is attempting to secure a Democratic victory in Florida.
Power & Politics’ November 3 average placed Moody at 49% and Nixon at 43.8%, giving the Republican a 5.2-point advantage. Its calculation used the latest available surveys from InsiderAdvantage and St. Pete Polls, with interviews ending October 29 and October 27, respectively.
A separate 270toWin compilation of seven polls showed Moody leading Nixon by 50.4% to 44.3%. Individual surveys varied, but the different polling averages consistently showed a Republican advantage before Election Day.
The Senate contest is part of the national battle for control of the chamber. Florida’s result will determine who represents the state in Washington for the remainder of the Senate term and could contribute to the overall balance of power in Congress.
Can Byron Donalds win the Florida governor’s race?
Republican Byron Donalds is seeking to succeed Gov. Ron DeSantis, who is term-limited, and faces Democrat David Jolly in the November 3 election. The contest has attracted national attention as both parties compete for control of the governor’s office in one of the country’s largest states.
On Point Politics’ November 2 average showed Donalds with 48% and Jolly with 45.2%, a 2.8-point difference. The Hill and Decision Desk HQ’s November 3 estimate placed Donalds at 47.7% and Jolly at 44%.
A Research Co. poll conducted November 2 gave Donalds a four-point advantage, with 48% against 44% for Jolly. Meanwhile, a RedBox Research survey conducted October 30–31 among 2,898 likely voters showed a much closer contest, with Donalds at 47% and Jolly at 46%. The margin of error was 2.1 percentage points for each candidate’s share.
The different measurements illustrate the uncertainty surrounding the governor’s race. The official results will determine whether Republicans retain the office or Democrats win the statewide contest.
What issues are shaping the Florida midterm elections?
The two statewide races are unfolding amid debates over the economy, the cost of living, immigration, public safety and the direction of state government. The governor’s contest is also a test of the Republican political coalition after DeSantis’ two terms in office.
For Democrats, the election offers an opportunity to challenge the Republican advantage in Florida. For Republicans, victories in both races would maintain their control of the state’s two most prominent statewide offices.
Key points to watch include:
- The Senate special election: Whether Moody maintains her polling advantage over Nixon as counties report their results.
- The governor’s race: Whether Jolly can close the polling gap with Donalds.
- Voter turnout: Participation in major metropolitan areas and among independent voters.
- Election reporting: The timing and volume of results released by Florida’s 67 county election offices.
- Congressional control: The broader implications of Florida’s federal elections for the balance of power in Washington.
When will Florida midterm election results be available?
Florida’s polling places are scheduled to close at 7 p.m. local time on Tuesday, November 3. However, the state operates in two time zones, Eastern and Central. Preliminary statewide election-night results will not be released until 8 p.m. Eastern Time, according to the Florida Department of State.
The first updates will include results reported by county election officials. The timing of subsequent updates may vary depending on the processing and reporting of early votes, mail ballots and votes cast in person.
Early returns are not necessarily representative of the entire electorate. The candidates’ positions may change as additional counties report their totals. A media organization’s projection is also distinct from the official result certified by state and county election authorities.
Voters can follow the official count through the Florida Department of State’s Election Watch website.
Frequently asked questions about the 2026 Florida midterm elections
Who is running for Senate in Florida in 2026?
Republican Ashley Moody and Democrat Angie Nixon are the two main candidates in the special U.S. Senate election. Independent candidate Neil Gillespie is also on the general election ballot.
Who is running for governor of Florida?
Republican Byron Donalds is facing Democrat David Jolly in the 2026 governor’s race. Libertarian Scott Jewett and several independent candidates are also competing.
Who is leading the Florida Senate polls?
Power & Politics’ November 3 polling average gave Ashley Moody 49% and Angie Nixon 43.8%, a 5.2-point Republican advantage. Other polling averages also showed Moody ahead.
Who is leading the Florida governor polls?
On Point Politics’ November 2 average showed Byron Donalds at 48% and David Jolly at 45.2%. The Hill and Decision Desk HQ’s November 3 estimate also placed Donalds ahead.
Why is the Florida Senate race important?
The contest is a special election for the U.S. Senate seat Ashley Moody has held since her appointment in 2025. Its outcome will determine who represents Florida in the chamber for the remainder of the term and contribute to the national battle for Senate control.
What time do polls close in Florida?
Polling places close at 7 p.m. local time. Florida follows Eastern Time in most of the state and Central Time in its western Panhandle counties. Preliminary statewide results are scheduled for release at 8 p.m. Eastern Time.
Where can I check Florida midterm election results live?
The Florida Department of State provides unofficial election-night results through its Election Watch website. News organizations such as ABC News and Fox News also publish live election results and updates.
- Florida Election Watch: https://floridaelectionwatch.gov/
- Florida Division of Elections: https://dos.elections.myflorida.com/
- ABC News: https://abcnews.com/Politics/florida-2026-live-midterm-election-results/story?id=136763079
- Fox News: https://www.foxnews.com/elections/2026/midterm-results/state/florida
